Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 26.769570 31.894414 37.498228 44.050471 51.470114 59.579982 69.082311
2025-08-03 19.567716 26.432222 34.658835 45.109869 57.890090 72.864037 91.578021
2025-08-10 14.764308 22.128973 31.632798 44.507314 61.178972 81.713357 108.558055
2025-08-17 11.892602 19.512789 29.985606 44.942812 65.217617 91.179959 126.302692
2025-08-24 9.610850 17.186192 28.226838 44.767585 68.111913 99.025318 142.077784
2025-08-31 7.535634 14.722153 25.834386 43.281213 68.873482 103.848275 153.880299
2025-09-07 6.412634 13.531825 25.110397 44.012652 72.626118 112.729140 171.325103
2025-09-14 5.183696 11.904093 23.445218 43.075090 73.769661 117.905742 183.778515
2025-09-21 4.526291 11.172503 23.118405 44.130625 77.855147 127.343250 202.444141
2025-09-28 3.539615 9.586306 21.096886 42.198025 77.150917 129.699826 211.028580
2025-10-05 3.177025 9.204221 21.156858 43.709320 81.883594 140.225547 231.718477
2025-10-12 2.805517 8.720785 20.954989 44.720064 85.822948 149.665115 251.082636
2025-10-19 2.471347 8.295929 20.898001 46.138858 90.781661 161.284464 274.764934
2025-10-26 2.143889 7.813422 20.673812 47.256189 95.350211 172.581004 298.528510
2025-11-02 1.731325 6.981882 19.589015 46.632493 96.864468 179.085902 315.182289
2025-11-09 1.463907 6.468340 19.102362 47.084318 100.233092 188.637221 336.792367
2025-11-16 1.202934 5.880336 18.345435 46.902569 102.420299 196.306478 355.657025
2025-11-23 0.921815 5.105207 17.002296 45.360592 101.991792 199.587641 367.629420
2025-11-30 0.789768 4.803329 16.771764 46.119445 105.843956 210.134046 391.492959
2025-12-07 0.616051 4.252593 15.794362 45.146725 106.330824 214.952684 406.200986
2025-12-14 0.536893 4.062131 15.752818 46.241830 110.842517 226.819203 432.723238
2025-12-21 0.389073 3.457583 14.421424 44.236620 109.124626 227.750541 441.203292
2025-12-28 0.348547 3.373938 14.606685 45.804756 114.613907 241.540073 471.436459